People keep talking about a US recession, but very few people regularly check the leading indicators.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index has been declining for over a year. The yield curve inverted and is now un‑inverting, which historically is the real danger signal. At the same time, industrial production from FRED is holding steady, nonfarm payrolls keep surprising to the upside, and consumer spending has not cracked.
The data is contradictory. Leading indicators say “recession risk.” Coincident indicators say “ongoing expansion.” This exact pattern appeared in 1966 and 1998 (where the recession signal was a false positive) and in 2006 (where it was not).
The difference between those outcomes came down largely to credit conditions and housing. That is why you need to look at the full picture, not just one headline series.
If you want to run this analysis yourself, EconLens pulls all of these indicators live from FRED, compares them to historical episodes, and tells you which pattern the current data most closely matches. One question, fifteen seconds, fully cited.
econlens.app.