Three economic indicators are often more useful than GDP and most people never check them.
First, the ISM Manufacturing PMI. It is a survey of purchasing managers that tends to lead GDP by about three months. When it drops below 50, it signals contraction and has predicted seven of the last eight recessions.
Second, Initial Jobless Claims. It is weekly, making it the fastest widely watched signal in economics. When the four‑week moving average trends up, it is an early warning for labor market deterioration; by the time the unemployment rate moves, it is old news.
Third, the 10Y–3M yield spread. It is arguably a better recession predictor than the more famous 10Y–2Y spread and has inverted before every US recession since 1960 with essentially no false positives, even if timing varies.
All three series are available from FRED, and EconLens can pull them live when you ask “what are the current leading recession indicators,” complete with historical context.
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